M31 CAPITAL

Investment Intelligence

We identify paradigm shifts before consensus forms. Systematic contrarian analysis across technology, finance, and the future of human civilization.

Read Our Thesis →
Understanding how the world works is a prerequisite to pursuing the right strategy.

Not a crypto fund. Not a VC. Not an asset manager.

We don't fit into traditional categories because we built something new: an investment intelligence firm that deploys capital wherever we identify paradigm shifts—regardless of asset class, structure, or consensus.

Intelligence

We produce research-grade analysis of the forces reshaping civilization: money, technology, power. Our research identifies paradigm shifts before they become consensus—and before they're priced in.

Capital

Once we identify a paradigm shift, we find the optimal structure to gain exposure: liquid tokens, venture equity, structured products. We're not constrained by asset class or fund mandate.

Partnership

We work with a select group of sophisticated investors—family offices, sovereign wealth funds, institutions—providing strategic exposure across our entire thesis. Partners, not clients.

Research-first. Thesis-driven. Multi-strategy.

01

Identify the paradigm shift

We systematically scan for civilizational inflection points—technologies, geopolitical shifts, and institutional changes that will reshape industries.

02

Find the live players

Within each paradigm shift, we identify the organizations and individuals actively shaping outcomes—not bureaucracies running on autopilot, but live players with agency.

03

Deploy capital optimally

We structure our exposure based on the opportunity, not arbitrary fund mandates. Liquid positions for public markets, venture for early-stage, custom structures for unique situations.

04

Support and exit

Through M31 Labs, we provide portfolio companies with network resources, strategic introductions, and operational support. We manage exits actively, not passively.

What's going on in the world

Our research tracks the intersection of money, technology, and power—identifying the shifts that will define the next decade.

Deep Tech

AI, quantum, biotech, fusion

Geopolitics

Deglobalization, resource wars

Digital Assets

Infrastructure, DeFi, tokenization

Defense Tech

Autonomous systems, space

Monetary Systems

CBDCs, stablecoins, reserves

Demographics

Depopulation, labor, migration

Institutional Trust

Media, governance, verification

Robotics

Manufacturing, automation

The 7 criteria that drive decisions

Suppression Signal

Will established institutions allow this to succeed? High suppression = contrarian opportunity.

5 = Maximum suppression → 1 = Government supported

Scientific Unlock

Has the fundamental breakthrough occurred that enables this paradigm shift?

5 = Breakthrough validated → 1 = Waiting on science

Political Winds

Is the regulatory and political environment favorable or hostile?

5 = Active government support → 1 = Active opposition

Pattern Match

Does this match the pattern of previous successful paradigm shifts?

5 = Strong pattern match → 1 = No historical analog

TAM

How large is the addressable market if this paradigm shift succeeds?

5 = Civilization-scale → 1 = Niche application

Investability

Are there quality investment opportunities available at reasonable valuations?

5 = Multiple options → 1 = No investable vehicles

Timing

Is now the right moment to invest, or should we wait for better entry?

5 = Optimal entry → 1 = Too early or too late

Non-consensus from the beginning

We've been identifying paradigm shifts before consensus since our founders took their first Bitcoin position in 2012.

2012
First Bitcoin position
2015
First Ethereum position
1,100%+
Returns since inception
50+
Portfolio companies

Ready to see the world differently?

We partner with investors who share our conviction that the future belongs to those who see it first.

Start the conversation →

Our Team

Bridgewater-trained operators, early crypto pioneers, and systematic thinkers building the Bridgewater of private markets.

Nathan Montone

Nathan Montone

Partner — Research & Investment

A pioneer in blockchain technology since 2011, Nathan has played a pivotal role in over 100 startup ventures. His exceptional talent for identifying paradigm shifts before consensus forms has established him as a leading voice on technology's role in reshaping civilization. At M31, Nathan leads frontier technology research and investment decisions.

Michael Swensson

Michael Swensson

Partner — Operations

Over 20 years building and running best-in-class hedge fund operations. A former COO at Bridgewater Associates where he led strategic initiatives and developed internal risk governance frameworks. At M31, Michael institutionalizes our operations to support systematic, scalable investment processes.

Jen Berry

Jen Berry

Partner — Strategy & Systematization

A systematic thinker who spent 16 years at Bridgewater working closely with Ray Dalio to transform how organizations operate at scale. Her track record building operational excellence spans Thrive Global, Lifelines, and The Mycelorium. At M31, Jen drives the systematic machine that makes both the firm and its portfolio companies excellent.

Open Positions

We're building a team of exceptional individuals who combine deep expertise with intellectual courage.

Head of Research

New York · Full-time

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Investment Analyst

New York · Full-time

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Investor Relations

New York / Remote · Full-time

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M31 Capital Research

The M31 Thesis

Technologies that affect power dynamics can dramatically shape the direction of civilization in ways that are not immediately obvious when they first arrive.

Investment Framework 25 min read Updated January 2025

I. The Core Insight

The Printing Press transferred power from the Church to the State. The Microprocessor transferred power from institutions to individuals. Bitcoin transferred power from closed networks to open networks. At each inflection point, the magnitude of the shift was invisible to contemporaries and obvious only in retrospect.

M31 Capital exists to identify these inflection points before consensus forms. Our edge is not superior intelligence or information—it is systematic contrarian analysis applied to paradigm shifts at the intersection of technology, finance, and human coordination.

"When powerful interests oppose something that works, their opposition validates the disruption potential rather than invalidating it. We call this the Suppression Signal, and it is the primary alpha source in our investment process."

II. The Suppression Signal

Our research demonstrates a counterintuitive pattern: the intensity of establishment opposition correlates with the magnitude of investment opportunity. When central banks attack Bitcoin, when pharma lobbies against psychedelics, when defense primes dismiss software startups—these are not warning signs to avoid. They are signals to investigate.

Incumbents with billions at stake invest heavily in understanding competitive threats. When they mobilize opposition—lobbying, negative PR, regulatory capture—they reveal private information about the threat's legitimacy. They don't waste resources opposing things that don't work.

Our Principles

  • High Curiosity — Obsessively asking how the world really works
  • Pattern Recognition — Studying historical parallels and reasoning from first principles
  • Trait Openness — Actively engaging with nontraditional, even heretical, ideas
  • Contrarian Truth-Seeking — Pursuing accuracy over popularity
  • Anti-Authoritarian — Investing in technologies that maximize individual sovereignty

III. The Investment Framework

We score paradigm shifts across seven criteria: Suppression Signal, Scientific Unlock, Political Timing, Historical Pattern Match, Total Addressable Market, Investability, and Timing. Each criterion has specific evidence requirements and scoring methodology developed through 15 years of application.

The sweet spot for M31 investment is technology readiness Phase 2.5-3.5: "works but doesn't work well." Before Phase 2.5, technology risk dominates. After Phase 3.5, consensus has formed and alpha has compressed. We seek the messy middle where working technology meets maximum skepticism.

IV. What We Seek

We back founders building technologies that fundamentally shift power structures and expand human freedom. We invest where genuine breakthroughs create new leverage—moving systems from closed-door to verifiable, from centralized to permissionless, and from constrained to scalable.

"The fear you feel is the price of asymmetric returns. When suppression signal exceeds 60 and scientific validity exceeds 7.0, invest despite fear."

V. Conclusion

The greatest investments of our era will come from paradigm shifts that are currently dismissed, ridiculed, or actively suppressed. Our job is to identify which suppressed technologies actually work, understand the timeline for suppression to lift, and position capital accordingly.

This is not contrarianism for its own sake. It is systematic pattern recognition applied to the intersection of technology and power. The patterns are clear to those who look. The question is whether you have the conviction to act on them.

M31 Capital Research

Paradigm Shift Intelligence

Institutional-grade research identifying civilizational inflection points before consensus forms.

01

Sector Research

The Humanoid Transition
Physical AI
From Special-Purpose to General-Purpose Robots

The first fundamental change in physical labor automation since the industrial revolution. Foundation models unlock general-purpose embodied AI.

15 min read
INVEST4.3/5
Decentralized Intelligence
Crypto + AI
Capturing Value from the Centralized AI Oligopoly

Same thesis as Bitcoin for money, now applied to compute and intelligence. DeFi Summer velocity emerging.

18 min read
INVEST4.4/5
Strategic Reserve Era
Crypto
The Strategic Reserve Era Begins

Thesis fully validated after 12+ years. Managing position through cycles as nation-state adoption accelerates.

12 min read
INVEST4.9/5
Software Eating Defense
Defense
A Good Thesis, Not a Contrarian Thesis

Startups winning procurement over primes. BUT low suppression = consensus trade. Alpha window closing.

14 min read
INVEST4.3/5
Programmable Finance
Crypto
The Programmable Finance Infrastructure Layer

Core infrastructure proven through DeFi Summer. Now applications phase expanding on battle-tested foundations.

16 min read
INVEST4.1/5
The Suppressed Medicine
Biotech
Psychedelic Healthcare: Maximum Suppression, Patient Capital

Pharma incumbents create maximum suppression signal. Science validated, waiting on regulatory and cultural shift.

14 min read
WATCH3.6/5
Beyond Einstein
Frontier Science
Post-Einsteinian Physics: Grants, Not Investments

Breakthrough potential in propulsion, energy, materials. Maximum scientific suppression. Support through grants until breakthrough validated.

20 min read
GRANTS2.8/5
The Longevity Escape
Biotech
Longevity Research: Cultural Suppression, Science Advancing

Death acceptance creates cultural headwinds. Scientific breakthroughs accelerating. Generational timeline for full adoption.

18 min read
WATCH3.4/5
02

Signal Methodology

The Suppression Signal
Core Signal — 20% Weight
When Opposition Validates Opportunity

M31's core alpha source. Backtested across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tesla, and emerging paradigm shifts.

20 min read
METHODOLOGY
The Scientific Unlock
Core Signal — 15% Weight
Technology Readiness & Breakthrough Detection

The 5-layer validity stack. Distinguishing genuine breakthrough from hype cycles and vaporware.

18 min read
METHODOLOGY
Pattern Matching
Core Signal — 15% Weight
Historical Analogues & S-Curve Analysis

Internet 1995, mobile 2007, crypto 2012. The patterns that predict paradigm shift timing and magnitude.

17 min read
METHODOLOGY
03

Suppression Studies

The Suppression Cartography
Featured Analysis • Deep Dive
Mapping the Forces of Resistance

The four forces of suppression: Money, Technology, Power, Culture. How each affects timeline and investment approach.

25 min read
DEEP ANALYSIS
The Source Hypothesis
Meta-Framework • Consciousness
Where Breakthrough Insight Comes From

A high-conviction framework examining the phenomenology of breakthrough innovation and its investment implications.

35 min read
FRAMEWORK
Live vs Dead Players
Analysis Framework
Identifying Agencies That Shape Outcomes

How to distinguish organizations with genuine agency from bureaucracies running on autopilot. Critical for founder evaluation.

16 min read
FRAMEWORK

Get in Touch

For partnership inquiries, investment discussions, or to explore joining our team.

Email us at Investor Relations

Our Locations

New York City

One World Trade Center
85th Floor
New York 10007

Abu Dhabi

Etihad Towers
King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz
Abu Dhabi, UAE

Doha

Tornado Tower
1 Al Corniche
Doha, Qatar